Media Experiences 2 Go

It’s impossible not to get excited about the rapid innovation taking place in Web video – from Joost’s upcoming P2P service with “real” TV channels, to Sling Media’s SlingCatcher, to Apple TV. Not everything new will succeed, but even when it doesn’t, the innovation puts pressure on video industry Goliaths to deliver better products and services.

Here’s the thing though. I wonder if the rate of change we’re seeing is going to catch up with us. And here’s why:

1. If P2P video and even basic video downloading explode they way they’re supposed to with the new services being introduced, broadband networks are going to come to a screeching halt. Okay, that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but cable operators have certainly been known to shut down individuals’ service because they’ve exceeded some acceptable bandwidth-use limit. Throw massive amounts of P2P video into the mix and lots of folks are going to be pushing those limits.
   
   
2. Old devices aren’t making way for the new. Nothing is out on the market yet that would replace all the functionality of a DVR set-top, and until that happens, every new device is an add-on in the living room rather than a replacement. Why is that important? Statistics from the CEA show that CE unit sales declined in 2006 and will likely continue a downward trend in 2007. CE dollar spend is up, but that’s because of flat-panel TV purchases, which are tending to crowd out other devices. (*Thanks to Arnie for pointing out these stats.)

There is clearly a big technology shift underway, but I don’t think the market is going to move as quickly as the hype suggests.